Research seeks to transform HAB management

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The Sanibel-Captiva Conservation Foundation reported its Marine Lab is leading the field campaign for a water sampling effort that is informing a state-of-the-art artificial intelligence transformer model to better manage the water flow from Lake Okeechobee to the Caloosahatchee. Sample analyses are incorporated into model simulations to help identify the drivers of harmful algal blooms, or HABs, and set targets for needed water quality improvements.

The SCCF is collaborating with the University of Florida's Center for Coastal Solutions and other UF researchers to guide water managers in delivering freshwater, while minimizing the negative impacts of nutrient loads from horticultural activities.

A distinguishing feature of the model is its ability to pay attention to the most relevant information it has been trained to work with. In the project, the team trains the model to learn from years of archived data to forecast variables, such as streamflow, salinity and nitrate concentration.

As co-principal investigator, Marine Lab Director Dr. Eric Milbrandt is utilizing methods for earlier HAB detection through the River, Estuary and Coastal Observing Network's continuous water quality monitoring stations and a comprehensive, targeted sampling program — critical tools in a region where water quality monitoring has largely occurred as a reaction to bloom events.

"The modeling used to better predict harmful algal blooms is supported and validated by a field campaign to sample water from Lake Okeechobee to the Gulf of Mexico," Milbrandt, who leads the sampling effort, said. "We collect water quality data and water samples that are delivered to University of Florida researchers Drs. Elise Morrison and Ed Phlips. Other water samples are run at the SCCF Marine Lab."

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The model learns to read current conditions in the water and a region's weather forecast, then accurately makes predictions up to 14 days for the area being studied. Transformers models’ capacity to extract information from large datasets has led to better performance, compared to previous methods of hydrological modeling, and can model a wider range of variables.

Project team members Morrison, an assistant professor at the Engineering School of Sustainable Infrastructure and Environment, and Phlips, a professor at the School of Forest, Fisheries and Geomatic Sciences in the Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences, are developing novel water quality sampling methods to identify the specific nutrient sources fueling HABs, their origin and their impact on phytoplankton — algae — communities.

Milbrandt stressed the importance of a concentrated scientific focus on the ecosystem.

"We live and work on a barrier island with limited local expertise, so this project is exciting because of the depth and breadth of new tools and knowledge that will be brought to the region to help tackle water quality declines," he said. "HABs are causing many negative effects, from fish kills, to large hypoxic (low-oxygen) zones, to blue-green algae blooms that clog up our waterways, all of which negatively affect our tourism-based economy."

The SCCF reported that the next step is to apply the transformer model in real-time, with data from weather forecasting agencies to automate predictions on a day-to-day basis.

This work is part of a project to integrate lake, watershed and estuarine models to guide water management in mitigating the impact of HABs. The project is a partnership between UF, the University of South Florida, North Carolina State University and SCCF, with funding support from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.

The study is a multi-pronged approach by UF researchers and their collaborators on a phenomenon that has plagued coastal ecosystems, particularly in Southwest Florida, with greater frequency.

A study conducted by UF and published in 2020 showed that over a 16-year period, there were 28 times when a Florida county experienced a month with 15 or more days of red tide presence. All of them occurred in one of six counties — Pinellas, Manatee, Sarasota, Charlotte, Lee or Collier — which comprises 200 miles of coastline in Southwest Florida.

Center for Coastal Solutions Associate Director Dr. David Kaplan and a team of center-affiliated scientists and engineers from UF, the University of South Florida, North Carolina State University and SCCF received $2.3 million from the Army Corps in 2021 to study how water and nutrients flowing from Lake Okeechobee and the Caloosahatchee River watershed interact with tides, currents and waves at the coast to affect coastal water quality. The financial support extends through September 2024.